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  Title Worst-case scenario consequence modelling in natural gas transmission pipeline using PHAST software
  Author(s) Payam Amir-Heidari, Mehrzad Ebrahemzadih, and Omid Giahi  
  Abstract QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT (QRA) is one of the important tools for accurate determination of risk levels. To conduct a QRA, the probability of occurrence and the severity of consequences of potential accidents should be estimated quantitatively; having these two elements it will be possible to calculate and prioritize the risks. Since natural gas transmission pipelines are one of the most critical and strategic facilities in every country, quantitative assessment of risks arising from these pipelines is of higher importance.

In this paper, after a review of main theoretical principles, as a case study, the consequence modelling of a worst-case scenario in natural gas transmission pipelines, for three conservative sample climatic conditions in Iran, was performed using PHAST software. The results showed that jet fire and vapour cloud explosion (VCE) are the two significant events for the worst-case scenario of natural gas transmission pipeline, i.e. pipe rupture. The modelling indicated that the thermal radiation of jet fire was more sensitive to wind speed, and was proportional to it. A maximum thermal radiation level of 33.8 kw/m2 was obtained for neutral atmospheric condition with a wind speed of 5 m/s. On the other hand, for the VCE scenario, the probable distance for VCE was more sensitive to atmospheric stability class, and it was greater for more stable classes. For the stable atmospheric condition with a wind speed of 1.5 m/s, this range was up to about 600 m (from 20 to 616 m). These results can be used for severity analysis in natural gas transmission pipeline risk analysis.

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